July 1st March Estimates
Section 1: July 1st Morning Parade
Here are the known facts -- the police estimate was 40,000 while the organizers claimed 50,000. Now you go figure out how some of these reports can come out like they did. Specifically, the western media quoted only the police estimate and refuse to mention the number given by the organizers. You are going to compare to what these same media have to say concerning the afternoon event.
(Ming Pao) 13:25, July 1, 2006.
巡遊籌委會召集人鄭耀棠估計，今年巡遊人數較去年多，總數最少達三萬人。
[in translation] Parade Planning Committee Convenor Cheng Yiu-tong estimated that the number of marchers is bigger than that of last year, and the total is at least 30,000.
(Deutsche Presse-Agentur via Monsters and Critics). July 1, 2006.
Earlier Saturday, an estimated 30,000 people attended a rival event at the Hong Kong Stadium celebrating Hong Kong's return to Chinese rule organized by a coalition of pro-China groups.
(Reuters) 12:08pm BST, July 1, 2006. By John Ruwitch.
Earlier in the day, thousands took part in a parade organised by the pro-Beijing Federation of Trade Unions. Police said 40,000 people participated.
(Associated Press via South China Morning Post) 17:38, July 1, 2006.
Beijing loyalists held a parade on Saturday to celebrate the handover anniversary. Organisers and police said about 40,000 people turned up for the event, which featured traditional lion dances and a marching performance by hundreds of Chinese soldiers.
(BBC News) July 1, 2006.
A pro-China rally held earlier in the day also attracted large numbers of people - police said 40,000 took part.
(Associated Press via Washington Post) 8:01 am EST. By Marco Liu. July 1, 2006.
Earlier Saturday, pro-Beijing groups held their own parade that attracted 40,000 people, police and organizers said. The event involved schools, civic groups, and entertainers such as Chinese lion dancers and children dressed in Chinese opera costumes. Hundreds of Chinese soldiers also took part for the first time.
(Los Angeles Times) July 2, 2006.
Pro-Beijing groups held a parade that attracted 40,000 people, police and organizers said.
(South China Morning Post) Thousands take to streets for democracy. By Ambrose Leung & Associated Press. 7:48pm HKG, July 1, 2006.
Meanwhile, Beijing loyalists held a parade on Saturday to celebrate the handover anniversary. Organisers and police said about 40,000 people turned up for the event, which featured traditional lion dances and a marching performance by hundreds of Chinese soldiers.
(Ming Pao) 15:15, July 1, 2006
由工聯會等十九個團體發起慶祝香港回歸大巡遊，主辦機構報稱五萬人參加，警方則表示有四萬人。
[in translation] For the parade organized by nineteen trade unions to celebrate the return of Hong Kong, the organizers claimed 50,000 particpants while the police said that there were 40,000 persons.
(Sing Tao) July 2, 2006.
籌委會表示巡遊人數超過五萬人，警方則表示有四萬人。
[in translation] The planning committee claimed that more than 30,000 people were in the parade, but the police said that there were 40,000.
(The Sun) July 2, 2006.
主辦單位估計有五萬人參加，而警方點算則有四萬人。
[in translation] The organizing unit estimated 50,000 people participated, but the police counted 40,000.
(Taipei Times) July 2, 2006.
A rival march organized by pro-China groups yesterday morning also attracted a large turnout with organizers estimating that 50,000 participated, while police put the figure at 40,000.
Section 2: July 1st Afternoon March
The known numbers and their sources are:
Now you go figure out how some of these reports can come out like this.
(Deutsche Presse-Agentur via Monsters and Critics). July 1, 2006.
Thousands of people took to the streets of Hong Kong Saturday in a pro-democracy march on the ninth anniversary of the territory's return to Chinese rule.
... Early estimates suggest the crowd was in the tens of thousands but a long way short of the 500,000 who attended the first of the July 1 marchs in 2003 and 2004 when Hong Kong was in an economic slump.
(SAPA-AP via IOL) 11:04AM (South Africa), Just 1, 2006.
Thousands of people began marching for an annual pro-democracy rally in Hong Kong on Saturday, marking the ninth anniversary of the former British colony's return to Chinese rule.
More than 4 000 protesters carrying banners that said "Equality, justice, fight for democracy" and "When will we get a timetable for full democracy?" began filing out of Victoria Park and made their way to the government headquarters.
The annual demonstration drew far fewer people than in previous years, when as many as half a million marched peacefully for the right to pick their city's leader and entire legislature.
(Reuters) 12:08pm BST, July 1, 2006. By John Ruwitch.
Thousands of people marched in central Hong Kong to demand full democracy on Saturday, the ninth anniversary of the former British colony's return to Chinese rule. Police estimate 19,000 people started the march, but the crowd grew as the demonstrators moved through the city chanting slogans and blowing whistles.
... In 2003 and 2004, half a million or more people joined the march, upset at the weak economy and the government's mismanagement of various issues. But last year after the city's unpopular leader Tung Chee-hwa resigned, the number of participants fell to around 20,000.
(Associated Press via South China Morning Post) 17:38, July 1, 2006.
Thousands turned out for the annual rally of Hong Kong's pro-democracy movement on Saturday, while a pro-central government parade also drew thousands to mark the ninth anniversary of the former British colony's return to Chinese rule.
More than 19,000 protesters carrying banners that said "Equality, justice, fight for democracy" made their way to the government headquarters - in marked contrast to the half a million people who marched in 2003 and 2004 to demand the right to pick the territory's leader and entire legislature.
Analysts predicted that up to 50,000 would join the pro-democracy march by the end of the day. The movement for democratic reform has lost momentum because of a steadily improving economy and leadership changes in Hong Kong.
(BBC News) July 1, 2006.
Tens of thousands of people have joined a rally in Hong Kong calling for full democracy in the territory.
Organisers say 58,000 took part; police put the figure at 28,000. The marchers, some blowing whistles, carried banners reading "Justice, Equality, Democracy".(Ming Pao) 19:21, July 1, 2006.
民陣發言人估算今年遊行人數為5.8萬人，而警方則表示，在遊行隊伍維園出發時，維園內約有1.9萬人，而遊行人數則有2.8萬人，無論民陣與警方的數字均較去年的估算為高。去年7.1遊行民陣稱有2.1萬人，警方稱有1.7萬人。
[in translation] The Civil Human Rights Front estimated 58,000 persons were in the march. The police said that when the march departed from Victoria Park, there were 19,000 persons but the total number of marchers was 28,000. Both Civil Human Rights Front and police estimates were higher than their respective numbers last year. Last July 1st, the Civil Human Rights Front claimed 21,000 while the police claimed 17,000.
(Associated Press via Washington Post) 8:01 am EST. By Marco Liu. July 1, 2006.
Thousands chanted slogans and marched through Hong Kong's streets in a pro-democracy protest Saturday, while a pro-Beijing parade also drew a big crowd to mark the ninth anniversary of the former British colony's return to Chinese rule.
Police said 28,000 people joined the pro-democracy event, while the organizers estimated that 58,000 attended. The protesters shouted, "Full democracy now!" and carried banners saying "Equality, justice, fight for democracy" as they strolled toward government headquarters.
(South China Morning Post) Thousands take to streets for democracy. By Ambrose Leung & Associated Press. 7:48pm HKG, July 1, 2006.
Tens of thousands of people marched through Hong Kong's streets on Saturday, the ninth anniversary of the handover to the mainland, demanding universal suffrage and better administration. Organisers said 58,000 people took part in the protest ...
Last night police estimated the turnout of the pro-democracy march was 28,000 ...
(Hong Kong University Public Opinion Programme) July 1, 2006.
[in translation]
The researchers obtained these counts at the pedestrian overpass at the intersection of Hennessey Road and Arsenal Road:
Time: 400pm-429pm: Lane 1: 32; Lane 2: 35; Lane 3: 21. Total= 88.Time: 430pm-459pm: Lane 1: 1,615; Lane 2: 2,308; Lane 3: 1,776. Total: 5,699.
Time: 500pm-529pm: Lane 1: 1,768; Lane 2: 2,106; Lane 3: 1,894. Total: 5,768.Time: 530pm-559pm: Lane 1: 1,993; Lane 2: 3,114; Lane 3: 2,954. Total: 8,061.
Time: 600pm-629pm: Lane 1: 2,355; Lane 2: 2,216; Lane 3: 2,175. Total: 6,746
Total: Lane 1: 7,900; Lane 2: 9,997; Lane 3: 8,999. Total: 26,896.
Last year, HKU POP conducted telephone interviews with those who claimed to have participated and found that 68.9% had passed through the Arsenal Road counting station with a 95% confidence interval of plus or minus 6.3%. Consequently, the adjustment factor between 1.33 and 1.60 was applied to the raw count. Multiplying 26,896 by 1.33 and 1.60 would yield an estimate of the total number of marchers between 36,000 and 43,000. HKU POP will be running the telephone interviews again this year.(Hong Kong Daily News) July 2, 2006.
Civil Human Rights Front: 58,000
Police: 28,000香港回歸9周年，各方人士以不同方式迎回歸，昨日除了有官方舉行盛大的升旗禮和慶祝酒會外，亦有民間團體舉辦大巡遊慶祝回歸，得到5萬名市民支持（警方估計4萬），但不滿政府的組織民間人權陣線則連續第4年主辦七一遊行，對特區的管治提出訴求，在獲得前政務司司長陳方安生事前高調支持遊行的形勢下，民陣指有58,000名市民響應號召上街，但警方估計只有28,000人參與，而新華社則罕有地報道本港遊行的消息。
[in translation] On the ninth anniversary of the return of Hong Kong, different people used different ways to remember. Apart from the official flag-raising ceremony and the celebratory cocktail party, civic organizations held a big parade with 50,000 citizen supporters (the police estimated 40,000). But the Civil Human Rights Front, an organization disssatisfied with the government, held its fourth annual July 1st march to complain about the governance in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. With the support of former Chief Secretary Anson Chan announced beforehand, the Civil Human Rights said that 58,000 citizens answered the call to march, but the police estimated that there were only 28,000 marchers. In an unusual move, the Xinhua News Agency reported the news of a Hong Kong march.
(The Sun) July 2, 2006.
Headline: The Mrs. Chan bubble bursts民陣公布遊行人數為五萬八千人，超出去年二萬一千人逾倍。發言人李偉儀認為陳方安生加入可能是其中一個因素。不過，港大統計及精算學系估計只有二萬六千至二萬九千人。港府內部亦認為，陳太全力催谷最少應有四、五萬人，超過十萬人才反映其政治能量，但最終結果令政府也頗為驚訝。政府內部亦評估陳太成為遊行的焦點，參加人數卻沒有大升，等於為泛民鑊。
(in translation) The Civil Human Rights Front announced that 58,000 people marched, more than double the 21,000 last year. Spokesperson Lee Wai-yee believes that the participation of Anson Chan was a reason. But Hong Kong University Statistics and Actuarial Science Department estimated 26,000 to 29,000 persons. The Hong Kong government insiders believed that there should have been 40,000 to 50,000 when Mrs. Chan promoted the event with full effort and it would take more than 100,000 to show her political power. The final result astounded even the government The government insiders assessed that when Mrs. Chan became the focus of the march which did not get a huge increase in attendance, she would be held responsible for the pan-democratic camp.
[in translation]
This year's July 1st estimates:
- 58,000: Civil Human Rights Front
- 28,000: Hong Kong police
- 26,000-29,000: Hong Kong University Statistics and Actuarial Science Department
- 26,896: Hong Kong University Public Opinion Programme
Historical estimates for July 1st marches:
- 2003: Organizers 500,000; police 35,000
- 2004: Organizers 530,000; police 200,000
- 2005: Organizers 21,000; police 17,000(Apple Daily) July 2, 2006.
Headline: 58,000 people in the streets
[Note: The writing here has been criticized. In Chinese, the count is made in multiples of thousands (萬) and ten thousands (千). It is therefore more common to write 58,000 as 五萬八千人 (or five ten-thousands eight thousands persons). Instead, the headline writer used the decimal point to write '5.8萬人.' The accusation is that people may not catch the usual '.' and mistake this as 58 萬人, or 580,000.]
(in translation)
- 58,000: Civil Human Rights Front, handcounted by workers at Wanchai and Admiralty
- 36,000 - 43,000: Hong Kong University Public Opinion Programme, counted at the pedestrian overpass at Hennessey Road and Arsenal Road, and then adjusted with other information to include those who joined or left midway
- 39,000: Local youth group, team of five counted every 15 minutes and the minimum number is chosen for the final total
- 28,000: Hong Kong police announced that 19,000 departed from Victoria Park, but they did not disclose how they conducted the count(Sing Tao) July 2, 2006.
連續多年統計遊行人數的港大統計及精算學系高級講師葉兆輝，昨派出十人於遊行路抽樣調查，經統計後介乎二萬三千四百至二萬九千四百人，有九成一人更是於維園開步出發。
(in translation) Hong Kong University Statistics and Actuarial Science Department senior lecturer Ip Siu-fei has been counting the number of marchrs for many years. Yesterday, he sent 10 people to conduct a survey along the route and calculated the number of to be between 23,400 and 29,400, of which 91% had started from Victoria Park.
(Sing Pao) July 2, 2006.
民陣昨晚在政府總部外宣布有5.8萬人遊行，而警方數字則為2.8萬人，但港大統計及精算學系於晚上發表數字為2.6萬至2.9萬人，而港大民意研究計劃則估計介乎3.6萬至4.3萬人。
民陣發言人李偉儀表示，昨午在維園集合時，因為有市民並非在球場內等候，故令人覺得遊行人數不如去年，但其實在維園起步時，民陣估算到維園起步的市民應站滿接近五個足球場，且沿途不斷有市民加入。她又謂，今年參與遊行的市民不僅是因為前政務司司長陳方安生加入隊伍，還包括多項因素。而每個足球場可站一萬人。
至於港大統計及精算學系，則於銅鑼灣及金鐘，分別設立兩個監測點統計人流，並派出統計人員分為三組統計，再抽樣訪問遊行人士，以便評估中途插隊的人數參數。而港大民意研究計劃的學生研究隊，就全日在灣仔軒尼詩道與軍器廠街交界行人天橋點算，發現經過的有26,896人，但不包括之前離隊或之後插隊人士，並因應去年情況作出調整而得出最終數字。(in translation] Last evening, the Civil Human Rights Front announced outside Government Headquarters that 58,000 people marched but the police estimate was 28,000. The Hong Kong University Statistics and Actuarial Science Department announced last evening the number was between 26,000 and 29,000 while the Hong Kong University Public Opinion Programme estimated between 36,000 and 43,000.
Civil Human Rights Front spokesperson Lee Wai-yee said that when the assembly began in Victoria Park, some citizens were waiting outside the soccer fields and this gave the impression that there were fewer people than last year. Actually, when the march began from Victoria Park, the Civil Human Rights Front estimated that the people should take up five soccer fields with more people joining in during the march. She said taht the marchers did not only join because former Chief Secretary Anson Chan was in the march, but that there were many more factors. Each soccer field should hold 10,000 people.
The Hong Kong Unviersity Statistics and Actuarial Science Department had two stations at Causeway Bay and Admiralty to count the number of people. The statisticians were divided into three teams, and then they also surveyed the marchers in order to estimate the number of people who joined the march midway. The Hong Kong University Public Opinion Programme's student research team counted all day at the pedestrian overpass at the intersection of Hennessy and Arsenal Streets and counted 26,896 persons, not including those who left before or joined after the point. The final number was adjusted based upon survey data from last year.
(Ming Pao) July 2, 2006.
《明報》第三度委託的衛星圖片專家李偉鵬，他以「面積計算法」去推算今年7.1遊行人數，結果為22,141人程(未計插隊人數)。隧伍「龍頭」到達灣仔天樂里時，「龍尾」已離開維園，計算出整個遊行隊伍所佔的路段，只佔0.4段遊行路線的路面，再按路段面積及路面上遊人密度(即每100平方米有124人)，推算出今次的遊行人數
本報委託衛星圖片分析的星眺有限公司負責人、本身為土地測量師的李偉鵬，利用高空拍到遊行隊伍照片，以「面積計算法」去計算人數。全路的路段面積約7.2萬平方米，而在4時15分龍尾離開維園時，整個隊伍全長只佔0.4段遊行路段。軟件分析在灣仔(軒尼詩道及天樂里交界)的隊伍中，遊行隊伍佔路面闊度的 0.629(因遊行隊伍只用西行線)，而每100平方米約有124人，故推算出遊行人數有22,141人(未計插隊人數)。
[in translation] For the third year in a row, Ming Pao commissioned satellite photo expert Thomas Lee to use "aerial calculations" to estimate the number of marchers on July 1st. The results is 22,141 (not counting those joined in the middle of the march). When the first marchers reached Tin Lok Lane in Wanchai, the last marchers were leaving Victoria Park. Therefore, the total area occupied by the marchers was only 0.4 of the entire route. Based upon the road surface area and the density (124 persons per 100 square meters), the number of marchers was estimated.
Our newspaper commissioned satellite photo analysis company owner Thomas Lee who is a geographical surveyor to use aerial photos of the procession to estimate the number of marchers by "aerial calcluations." The entire roadway was approximately 72,000 square meters. When the end of the procession departed from Victoria Park at 415pm, the marchers occupied 0.4 of the roadway. The software analysis of the Wanchai marchers (at Hennessy Road and Tin Lok Lane) showed that the marchers only occupied by 0.629 of the roadway with a density of 124 persons per 100 square meters. From this it is inferred, that the number of marchers is 22,141 (not including those who joined in the middle of the march).
另外，港大統計及精算學系高級講師葉兆輝領導的統計小組，點算出遊行人數為26,400(誤差率為+/-3000人)。
葉兆輝領導小組昨日共派出5人，分2組分別在銅鑼灣波斯富街天橋及金鐘太古廣場的行人天橋，每5分鐘統計1分鐘經過該點的人數，再推斷出共有26,400遊行人數。葉說，計算出約有2000人在兩點中途加入，偏差為正負3000人，故遊行人數在2.3萬至2.9萬。
Also, Hong Kong Statistics and Actuarial Science Department senior lecturer Ip Siu-fei's statistical group estimated the number of marchers to be 26,400 (plus or minus 3,000).
Ip Siu-fei's team had five people in teams on the pedestrian bridges at Percival Street (Causeway Bay) and Pacific Place (Admiralty). For every five minutes, they counted the number of people who passed the point, and they estimated the number of marchers to be 26,400. Ip estimated that about 2,000 of those people joined in the middle of the march and the tolerance is plus or minus 3,000. Therefore, the number of estimated marchers is between 23,000 and 29,000.
此外，港大民意研究中心派人在軒尼詩道與軍器廠街交界的天橋，點算出經過該點的遊行人數26,896人，再按去年經過該點的遊行人士百分比率估計，推斷出今年的遊行人數為3.6萬至4.3萬。團體「本地著色青年」的統計則為38,900人。
Also the Hong Kong University Public Opinion Programme sent people to the pedestrian overpass between Hennessy Road and Arsenal Streets and counted the number of marchers to be 26,896. Based upon the ratio among the people who went past that point last year, they estimate the number of marchers to be between 36,000 and 43,000. A youth group canme up with an estimate of 38,900.
(Oriental Daily) July 2, 2006.
Headline: Mrs. Chan: Zero Effect民 陣 昨 日 根 據 「 一 二 ‧ 四 」 遊 行 的 同 一 統 計 方 法 ， 最 終 只 點 算 到 五 萬 八 千 人 參 加 七一 遊 行 ， 較 「 十 二 ‧ 四 」 急 跌 七 成 七 ， 警 方 更 指 遊 行 僅 有 二 萬 八 千 人 參 加 ， 香 港 大學 精 算 系 公 布 昨 日 遊 行 人 數 介 乎 二 萬 六 千 至 二 萬 九 千 人 ， 港 大 民 意 調 查 中 心 估 計 遊行 人 數 是 三 萬 六 千 至 四 萬 三 千 人 。
(in transaltion) The Civil Human Rights Front used the same calculation method for the 12/4 march and in the end counted 58,000 persons at the July 1st march, or 77% down from 12/4. The police said that only 28,000 persons marched; the Hong Kong University Statistics and Actuarial Science Department announced that the number of marchers was between 26,000 and 29,000; the Hong Kong University Public Opinion Programmed estiamted the number of marchers to be between 36,000 and 43,000.
(Apple Daily (Taiwan)) July 2, 2006.
Headline: Hong Kong fights for universal suffrage
60,000 people in the streets參與人數：官方估1.9萬人，主辦單位稱近6萬人
[in translation] Number of participants: The authorities estimated 19,000 persons; the organizers claimed almost 60,000 persons.
(Taipei Times) July 2, 2006.
Police, who usually underestimate turnouts for pro-democracy events, said 19,000 set out on the march but organizers said a total of 58,000 people took part.
The turnout was clearly greater than the 20,000 to 30,000 who took part last year but a long way short of the 500,000 who attended the first of the July 1 marches in 2003 and 2004.
This page will be updated as different estimates come in. See the links at the bottom of the page of the controversies in past years.
Historical links:
