Hong Kong Polls On Political Reform
This is about how to read an essay about how to read public opinion polls. First, the relevant parts of the public opinion polls are presented. Then the opinion essay is translated with annotations.
(Hong Kong University Public Opinion Programme) July 30, 2007. 1,007 persons interviewed on July 23-26, 2007.
On the roadmap and timetable for the universal suffrage of Chief Executive (CE) election, one of the opinions in society is to directly establish a nominating committee in 2012 to attain universal suffrage. Another opinion holds that a transitional phase shall be introduced before the actual implementation of universal suffrage in 2017. A third proposal is that Hong Kong is to undergo a transitional phase while universal suffrage should be attained after 2017. Of the above 3 opinions, which one are you more inclined to?
37%: To establish a nominating committee directly in 2012 to attain universal suffrage
32%: To go through a transitional phase and attain universal suffrage in 2017
20%: To go through a transitional phase and attain universal suffrage after 2017
11%: Don't know/hard to sayOn the roadmap and timetable for the universal suffrage of the Legislative Council (LegCo), there is an opinion that universal suffrage should be attained in 2012 while another view holds that it should be attained in phases in 2016. A third view proposes attaining universal suffrage in phases after 2016. Which view are you more inclined to?
42%: Attaining universal suffrage in 2012
31%: Attaining universal suffrage in phases in 2016
19%: Attaining universal suffrage in phases after 2016
9%: Don't know/hard to say
(Hong Kong University Public Opinion Programme) August 13, 2007. 1,013 persons interviewed on August 6-10, 2007. This is the third in a series of tracking studies on the same question, with the previous two polls being conducted June 1-7 and July 3-6 respectively.
Article 45 of Basic Law states that the method for selecting the Chief Executive shall be specified in the light of the actual situation in the HKSAR and in accordance with the principle of gradual and orderly progress. The ultimate aim is the selection of the Chief Executive by universal suffrage. Which year do you think the selection of the Chief Executive by universal suffrage should be implemented?
Sooner the better/2007 or earlier: 9%
Between 2008 and 2012: 42%
Between 2013 and 2017: 23%
Between 2018 and 2022: 4%
2023 or later: 3%
Don't know/hard to say: 19%Article 68 of Basic Law states that the method for forming the Legislative Council shall be specified in the light of the actual situation in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and in accordance with the principle of gradual and orderly progress. The ultimate aim is the election of all the members of the Legislative Council by universal suffrage. Which year do you think the selection of Legislative Councillors by universal suffrage should be implemented?
Sooner the better: 9%
2008 (or earlier): 19%
Between 2009 and 2012: 36%
Between 2013 and 2016: 10%
Between 2017 and 2020: 5%
2021 or later: 3%
Don't know/hard to say: 18%
(Hong Kong Research Association) 1,644 persons interviewed July 30-August 6, 2007.
Q10. Do you believe that the steps to be followed for the selection of the Chief Executive by universal suffrage should be ...?
42%: directly establish an election committee and implement universal suffrage in 2012
28%: go through a transition period and attain universal suffrage in 2017
21%: go through a transition period and attain universal suffrage after 2017
9%: no opinionQ11. Do you believe that the steps to be followed for the selection of the Legislative Councillors by universal suffrage should be ...?
40%: attain universal suffrage in 2012 in one step
27%: attain universal suffrage in 2016 in phases
23%: attain universal suffrage after 2016 in phases
10%: no opinion
(Lingan University Public Governance Programme) 673 Hong Kong permanent residents age 18 or over interviewed August 13-15, 2007.
Q5. When do you think that universal suffrage for the election of the Chief Executive should take place? 2012, 2017 or after 2017?
45%: 2012
21%: 2017
15%: after 2017
17%: don't know/no opinion
6%: refusedQ9. When do you think that universal suffrage for the election of the Legislative Councillors should take place? 2012, 2016 or after 2016?
36%: 2012
20%: 2016
26%: after 2016
18%: don't know/no opinion
1%: refused
(Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, The Chinese University of Hong Kong) 809 Hong Kong citizens age 18 or over interviewed July 23-26.
Q1. What do you think is the suitable schedule for the election of the Chief Executive by universal suffrage? 2012, 2017 or after 2017?
53%: 2012
22%: 2017
17%: after 2017
8%: don't know/unsureQ3. What do you think is the suitable schedule for the election of the Legislative Councillors? One step in 2012, or 2016 in phases, or after 2016 in phases?
40%: one step in 2016
37%: in 2016 in phases
16%: after 2016 in phases
8%: don't know/unsure
(Ming Pao; also at Yahoo! News) How to Read The Polls on Political Reform. By Hui Ka-wah (許家驊), who is a director of the Hong Kong Development Forum. August 17, 2007.
[in translation, with the comments of the blogger/translator being shown in red]
It is no exaggeration to say the battle over the political reform will be a tough public opinion battle. In theory, public opinion is not one of the three hurdles for political reform as stipulated in the Basic Law. On one side, as Chief Secretary Henry Tang has said, the government cannot put forth a proposal that the citizens will not accept and support. On the other side, the pan-democratic camp is counting on using public opinion to force the SAR government and the central government to accept their proposal for universal suffrage. Therefore, public opinion will be the vital battlefield. Various organizations have conducted their own public opinion polls in order to gauge the public mood. But those public opinion polls yield different conclusions which sometimes contradict each other. This is enough to daze people, or make them drowsy. Therefore, this writer will try to compare, organize and summarize the recent public opinion poll results.
In the past, the pan-democratic camp always liked to point out that more than 60% of the citizens want to achieve double universal suffrage as quickly as possible. But the fact is that even the poll commissioned by the pan-democratic camp and conducted by Hong Kong University at the end of July showed that only 37% of support universal suffrage for the election of the Chief Executive, whereas 53% supported 2017 or later. The ratio of supporter:opponent is 1.4. The fact was that the Hong Kong University public opinion poll in early July showed that 56% supported universal suffrage for the election of Chief Executive in 2012 or even earlier. Obviously, public support had dropped precipitously by 19% within one month.
[Comment: According to the HKU POP poll (July 23-26, 2007) cited at the top of this page, here is the detailed breakout of the response to the question:
On the roadmap and timetable for the universal suffrage of Chief Executive (CE) election, one of the opinions in society is to directly establish a nominating committee in 2012 to attain universal suffrage. Another opinion holds that a transitional phase shall be introduced before the actual implementation of universal suffrage in 2017. A third proposal is that Hong Kong is to undergo a transitional phase while universal suffrage should be attained after 2017. Of the above 3 opinions, which one are you more inclined to?
37%: To establish a nominating committee directly in 2012 to attain universal suffrage
32%: To go through a transitional phase and attain universal suffrage in 2017
20%: To go through a transitional phase and attain universal suffrage after 2017
11%: Don't know/hard to sayThe second HKU POP poll (August 6-10, 2007) cited has this detailed breakout of the response to a different question:
Article 45 of Basic Law states that the method for selecting the Chief Executive shall be specified in the light of the actual situation in the HKSAR and in accordance with the principle of gradual and orderly progress. The ultimate aim is the selection of the Chief Executive by universal suffrage. Which year do you think the selection of the Chief Executive by universal suffrage should be implemented?
Sooner the better/2007 or earlier: 9%
Between 2008 and 2012: 42%
Between 2013 and 2017: 23%
Between 2018 and 2022: 4%
2023 or later: 3%
Don't know/hard to say: 19%For the second breakout, 9%+42% = 51% preferred 2012 or earlier, while 23%+4%+3% = 30% preferred later than 2012. The ratio of supporter:opponent is 0.59.
As for the historical trend, the HKU POP page of August 6-10, 2007 shows the historical trend of the same question:
June 1-7, 2007: 10%+43% = 53%
July 3-6, 2007: 10%+46% = 56%
August 6-10, 2007: 9%+42% = 51%There was no precipitous drop of 19% within one month. The 19% difference occurred because responses to different questions were being compared (that is, apples and oranges). The lesson here is that the incidences are highly sensitive to the positioning and phrasing. You can also take the Lingnan University Public Governance Programme and the CUHK Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies polls cited above into the mix as well.]
Shortly after Hong Kong University poll was done, the Hong Kong Research Association conducted a similar poll. They found that 42% supported the selection of the Chief Executive by universal suffrage in 2012 and 59% supported 2017 or later. The ratio between supporters:opponents is also 1.4.
[Comment: The detailed breakout of the responses is:
Q10. Do you believe that the steps to be followed for the selection of the Chief Executive by universal suffrage should be ...?
42%: directly establish an election committee and implement universal suffrage in 2012
28%: go through a transition period and reach universal suffrage in 2017
21%: go through a transition period and reach universal suffrage after 2017
9%: no opinion42% supported 2012 or before and 28%+21% = 49% wanted later than 2012. The 'no opinion' cannot be counted among opponents. The ratio between supporters: opponents is 1.17.]
The Hong Kong University public opinion poll showed that 42% supported the selection of the Legislative Council by universal suffrage in 2012, while 50% supported 2016 or later. By comparison, the Hong Kong Research Association found that 40% supported the selection of the Legislative Council by universal suffrage in 2012, while 50% supported 2016 or later. The two sets of numbers are very close to each other, and this shows that the public opinion polls are quite reliable and therefore reflects public opinion accurately.
[Comment: The detailed breakout of the first HKU POP (July 23-26) responses to the question:
On the roadmap and timetable for the universal suffrage of the Legislative Council (LegCo), there is an opinion that universal suffrage should be attained in 2012 while another view holds that it should be attained in phases in 2016. A third view proposes attaining universal suffrage in phases after 2016. Which view are you more inclined to?
42%: Attaining universal suffrage in 2012
31%: Attaining universal suffrage in phases in 2016
19%: Attaining universal suffrage in phases after 2016
9%: Don't know/hard to sayThe detailed breakout of the second HKU POP responses to a different question:
Article 68 of Basic Law states that the method for forming the Legislative Council shall be specified in the light of the actual situation in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and in accordance with the principle of gradual and orderly progress. The ultimate aim is the election of all the members of the Legislative Council by universal suffrage. Which year do you think the selection of Legislative Councillors by universal suffrage should be implemented?
Sooner the better: 9%
2008 (or earlier): 19%
Between 2009 and 2012: 36%
Between 2013 and 2016: 10%
Between 2017 and 2020: 5%
2021 or later: 3%
Don't know/hard to say: 18%Therefore 9%+19%+36% = 64% wanted 2012 or before, while 10%+5%+3% = 18% wanted later than 2012.
The detailed breakout of the Hong Kong Research Association responses is:
Q11. Do you believe that the steps to be followed for the selection of the Legislative Councillors by universal suffrage should be ...?
40%: reach universal suffrage in 2012 in one step
27%: reach universal suffrage in 2016 in stages
23%: reach universal suffrage after 2016 in stages
10%: no opinion
Therefore 40% wanted universal suffrage by 2012, while 27%+23% = 50% wanted later than 2012. The 10% "no opinion" cannot be added into the opposition.Overall, these polls look different from each other. The responses are very sensitive to positioning and phrasing. You can also take the Lingnan University Public Governance Programme and the CUHK Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies polls cited above into the mix as well.]
[Comment: For the sake of completeness, the following contains the conclusions that the opinion essay writer drew from the numbers as he saw them.]
... What do these public opinion polls show? I believe that this shows that the Hong Kong people are "worldly people." The people of Hong Kong are known to be flexible and adaptive, for this is why we are so successful. The public opinion polls proved once again the Hong Kong people are not idealists and definitely not "fundamentalists for universal suffrage." While the people of Hong Kong want to have universal suffrage, they actually do not understand how it can be implemented, or how to resolve the conflicts among the various sectors, or how to reconcile the interests of the central government and the Hong Kong SAR. They do not hold specific and definite ideas about the details of universal suffrage. Could it be that we don't have the ability to acquire the knowledge? That is definitely false, because our elderly men and housewives are very good at playing the stock market. The problem is just how much we care about politics!
The people of Hong Kong are idealistic and they long for universal suffrage. But very few of us will spend the time to study the issues. Even fewer of us are willing to pay an economic price for our political ideals. Ultimately, the people of Hong Kong are economic animals and they will not allow the quest for universal suffrage to run foul of the central government and damage the mutual trust between mainland and Hong Kong. It would be really bad if "the flow of money from the north to the south" were to stop! The citizens realize that as a Special Administrative Region of China, the power must lie with the central government. To use public opinion to force the hand of the central government is impractical and begging for trouble. In the end, universal suffrage will be even more remote, and the only people who will benefit are the politicians looking for their political capital!
Actually, the public sentiments have always existed. But will the pan-democratic camp really listen to public opinion today?
