The Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall exercise the following powers and functions:

...

(5) To nominate and to report to the Central People's Government for appointment the following principal officials: Secretaries and Deputy Secretaries of Departments, Directors of Bureaux, Commissioner Against Corruption, Director of Audit, Commissioner of Police, Director of Immigration and Commissioner of Customs and Excise; and to recommend to the Central People's Government the removal of the above-mentioned officials;

Donald Tsang can recommend the removal of Tsang Tak-sing, but he does not have the power to dismiss him.  You can pressure Donald Tsang to make that recommendation and then pressure the Central People's Government to make the actual removal.  But you should not demand that Donald Tsang make the actual removal unless you hold no respect for the rule of law.

The above technical point was noted by Wong Onyin and not noted by any number of commentators and bloggers who wasted any number of words advocating the impossible.

• [019]  A Solid Fuck (12/08/2007) (KDnet)  In issue 2, volume 16, June 2003 of the Kansu province Economic Administrative Cadre Academy Bulletin, there appeared an essay titled <开拓进取，真抓实干，不断开创西部大开发的新局面>.  The author Song Chaosu is the Kansu provincial party secretary and the chairman of the Kansu provincial people's congress standing committee.
   
  In the database, the title of the article was translated into English as: Expand Enterprising and Really Grasp Solid Fuck and Continuously Expand and Great the New Situation of Buildings of Western Region.
   
  If there is a "solid fuck," it is the translation job.  A more appropriate translation is: Develop and Forge Ahead with True Understanding and Effort in order to Continuously Create New Situations to Open Up the Western Region." 

• [017]  The Ironclad Evidence of the 'Iron' Votes for Regina Ip (12/07/2007)  (VC's Digest)  The following data are sourced to the exit poll done by the Hong Kong University Public Opinion Programme.
   

  	Anson Chan Voters	Regina Ip Voters
  Who did you vote for in the 2004 HKI Legco election? DAB Rita Fan Democratic Party Audrey Eu/Cyd Ho Tsang Kin-sing Did not vote (including did not register to vote) Not a resident of Hong Kong Island Do not recall	1%   5% 27% 21%   1% 16%   2% 26%	20% 20%   2%   5%   0% 22%   2% 27%
  Do you support or oppose double universal suffrage in 2002? Support Neutral Oppose Don't know/hard to tell	81% 11%   3%   5%	38% 28% 19% 16%
  Did you ever participate in any of the July 1st marches? Yes No	45% 54%	13% 87%

  To simplify matters, the notion of the 'iron' leftist votes is that these people will vote whatever the 'party' tells them to.  Rain or shine, they will come out and do the bidding of the 'party.'  In the case of Regina Ip, the assumption may be that she will collect all the DAB "iron" votes plus whatever "pro-China" votes that Rita Fan got.  In the 2004 Legco election, the DAB list and Rita Fan got around 140,000 votes.  In the 2007 by-election, Regina Ip got just under 140,000 votes, but only 20% + 20% = 40% recalled that they had voted for DAB/Rita Fan last time.  How "iron" could the DAB/Rita Fan votes be?  If anything, Anson Chan got more 'iron' democratic votes.
   
  Relevant Link: 所有選民眼睛都是雪亮的  曾鈺成
   
  (論鐵票 ) 都是那些日子

  (in translation)

  Above all, I am interested in the HKU analysis of the backgrounds of the voers.  Among Anson Chan voters, only 27% voted for Martin Lee in 2004.  At the time, Martin Lee had around 120,000 votes, so does that mean that Martin Lee has only 40,000 or so votes left?!  Even if you add all of the 26% who could not recall whom they voted for, this is just over 50%.  So Martin Lee has lost 60,000 votes.  What is hapening with the pan-democrats?

  As for the leftists, 22% of the Regina Ip voters were new voters, higher than the 16% for the pan-democrats.  This showed that the leftists are better at cultivating new voters!  Anson Can drew 5% of Rita Fan's supporters; similarly, Regina Ip drew 5% of Audrey Eu's supporters.  This proves that some of the Hong Kong Island supporters of the Civic Party and Rita Chan can be peeled away.  The key is how and who!

  48% of the Anson Chan voters chose Audrey Eu or Martin Lee in 2004.  40% of the Regina Ip voters chose Rita Fan or the DAB in 2004.  From this, it may be inferred that the pan-democrats rely on the "iron" vote even more.  I want to say that in 2004, there was the July 1st effect and also Martin Lee was listed second on the Democratic Party list.  This led to many of the uncommitted voters to come out to vote, resulting in a 57% voter turnout.  That was how Martin Lee got 120,000 or so votes (and the pan-democrats got 200,000 or so votes when Audrey Eu is added). 

  In this election, the voter turnout was 52% and the pan-democrats got 170,000 votes.  If the pan-democrats did not have Anson Chan as the canddiate, would they have gotten as many of the 2004 supporters of the pan-demcorats to vote?  I can only say that if the candidate had been Kam Nai-wai or Cyd Ho, many of those people would not have voted.  Anson Chan lost 30,000 votes; how many more would have been lost if the candidate had been someone else?

• [016]  Hong Kong Cable TV Journalist Is Attacked (12/07/2007)  (Apple Daily)  Yesterday morning at a Tsimshatsui night club, there was a confrontation between two parties during which a man was assaulted by four other men.  The police was summoned, called for medical treatment for the injured man and arrested the four attackers.  During the process, a friend of the man yelled at the reporters to stop filming: "Enough!  Enough!  You've got enough film.  YOu can stop working."  Then he picked up a portable oxygen tank and tossed it at the Hong Kong Cable TV News cameraman.  The tank hit the cameraman on the forehead and knocked him out.
   
  
   
  
   
  The cameraman was sent to the hospital and his attacker was arrested.  Afterwards, some person visited the cameraman and said, "I am a senior management of Sun Hung Kai Properties.  I know the chairman of Hong Kong Cable."  He offered for a private settlement, but the camera rejected the proposal.  Sun Hung Kai Properties denied that they had such a senior-level person fitting the description.

• [015]  Kings of Kung Fu (12/06/2007)  (Daqi)  At the Chinese Sex Cultural Festival, Jet Li and Jackie Chan were recruited to promote a product named "Kings of Kung Fu."  What is the product for?  Premature ejaculation!
  
   
  That medicine can be used in conjunction with the Clinton brand of condoms.
  

 

(SCMP)  Chan 'flabbergasted' by attack.  By Ambrose Leung and Eva Wu.  December 6, 2007.

The secretary for home affairs yesterday accused new lawmaker Anson Chan Fang On-sang of being a "sudden democrat" who "suddenly cares about people's livelihood".   The former chief secretary decried the comments by Tsang Tak-sing as a "provocation and personal attack" and her allies demanded an apology for what they called a public humiliation of Mrs Chan on her first day in Legco.  But Mr Tsang did not respond to calls for him to withdraw the remarks he made during a Legislative Council motion debate on social enterprises.

The row erupted when Mrs Chan, after being sworn into office, gave her maiden speech during the debate, in which she thanked the public for their support and the hopes they had placed in her.  With reference to her election promises of addressing the widening wealth gap, Mrs Chan said the government should have done more to help people help themselves.  "Democracy and people's livelihood cannot be separated and without democracy, there would not be justice and underprivileged groups would not receive the care they should get," she said, adding she had seen the difficulties faced by these groups on her campaign trail.

But Mr Tsang, who was speaking on behalf of the government, launched an attack on Mrs Chan.  "She said she discovered about the difficulties faced by the members of public during her campaign. So apart from being suddenly democratic, she also suddenly cares for people's livelihood," Mr Tsang said.  Saying Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen had already pledged to improve the economy and people's livelihood, the home affairs secretary pointed out that Mrs Chan was in charge of economic and social welfare when she was in the British colonial government.  "Our new legislator today is a former official ... Unless she believes that colonial rule was democracy, I don't know whether she has worked for people's livelihood or officials' livelihood," said Mr Tsang, who was jailed for two years for distributing "inflammatory leaflets" during the 1967 riots. "Perhaps her name should not be On-sang, but Koon-sang," he said, using the Cantonese for "officials' livelihood".

Speaking after the meeting, Mrs Chan said: "I was absolutely flabbergasted that a bureau head should say such words. It seems to me to be a personal attack and it is really quite uncalled for. I was merely reiterating what was in my election platform."  She also said: "I hope this is an individual case and does not represent the government's stance."

Mr Tsang's spokeswoman said the minister "had nothing to add" when asked whether he would withdraw his remarks and apologise, and whether his remarks represented the government's stance.

(The Standard)  Chan slammed in Legco debut.  By Carol Chung and Carrie Chan.  December 6, 2007.

Newly sworn-in lawmaker Anson Chan Fang On-sang and a top government official locked horns yesterday, unleashing what may be a harbinger of more flare-ups in the future.  Chan was labeled a "sudden supporter for livelihood" after her maiden Legco speech on an innocuous social enterprise motion debate.  The remark was made by Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, who is also a Hong Kong deputy to the National People's Congress. Pan- democrat lawmakers immediately demanded an apology and a retraction.

Chan had said during her speech: "Speaking for the public and caring for the poor is my election pledge.  I have the responsibility to speak for the public."

Her words riled Tsang, who shot back: "The new lawmaker today was a top official in the past, once in charge of economic and welfare issues under colonial rule.  Unless she believes there [was] democracy under the colonial rule, I don't know whether she was doing the work of livelihood or that of an official. She said she has seen the bitterness in people's lives during the election campaign - apart from being a 'sudden democrat' [she's] a sudden supporter for livelihood."

Chan sat stone-faced during Tsang's tirade.

(Ta Kung Pao)  

民政事務局局長曾德成在發言時說：「今日的新議員，是昔日的舊高官，她對特區政 府提出了批評，她還贊成說沒民主，就沒民生……記得她曾經在英國殖民統治之下，主持過經濟和福利方面的工作，除非她認為殖民統治就是民主，否則我不知道她 當時所做的，到底是否民生的工作，還是『官生』的工作。或者不叫『安生』，是『官生』才對。她說在競選期間，知道了民間疾苦，原來除了忽然民主之外，還會 有忽然民生的。」

(Apple Daily)

Mr. Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, what entitles you to insult Mrs. Anson Chan Fong On-sang for no reason?  Is it because you are a bureau chief?

But your Chief Executive was elected by a small circle of 800 persons and he appointed you based upon reasons that people don't know about.  Mrs. Anson Chan Fong On-sang was elected by more than 170,000 voters on Hong Kong Island who constituted more than half of the people who voted that day.  Her acceptability and representativeness are so much better than yours.  So Secretary Tsang, what entitles you to publicly insult Mrs. Chan?

Mr. Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Taksing, what entitles you to publicly insult a Legislative Councilor elected under universal suffrage in the Legislative Council chamber?  Is it because you hold a senior position that wields huge powers? 

[ESWN blogger's comment:  The above leads to an interesting question: Is it alright to hurl personal insults and attacks at the legislative councilors for the functional constituencies?  After all, they were elected by small circles of people.]

(Ming Pao)

Tsang Tak-sing's comments were inappropriate because he targeted the person and not the matter at hand.  He targeted Chan Fong On-sang and he did not try to reason.  Actually, he could have calmly rebutted the theory that "no democracy" means "no people's livelihood," and he could have also pointed out that Chan Fong On-sang had been resopnsible for economic and welfare work during the British colonial administration.  If he had stopped there, it would have been a reasoned reply.  But he went unnecessarily further and made word play on Mrs. Chan's name by saying that she should be called "Koon-sang" (official's livelihood) instead of "On-sang. ...this is going too far, and this is disgraceful.

[ESWN blogger's comment: Whereas Tsang Tak-sing was direct, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Frederick Ma Si-hang was subtle in a story that the English-language media (such as The Standard) did not report on.]

(Ta Kung Pao)

In discussing accountability for the under-performance of Hong Kong Disney World, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Frederick Ma Si-hang said sarcastically: "I have spent a lot of time reading the meeting notes back then.  At the time, many legislators were present and many officials also sat in.  So I won't say which officials should be held responsible and which other officials should not be."  The so-called senior official that Ma is referring to was also surely Anson Can as she took part in the decision to construct Disney World.

(Ming Pao)  LSZ's column.

Scecretary Ma did not mention any specific names.  But informed government sources said that Ma discovered that on November 3, 1999, a team of government officials led by then Chief Secretary Anson Chan attended a special Legco meeting during which they sold the accord reached between the HK SAR government and Walt Disney company.  At the time, Secretary for Finance Donald Tsang was away on vacation.  The sources said that if Audrey Eu had persisted, Secretary Ma would have named Mrs. Chan and Audrey Eu might be embarrassed about damaging someone on her own side.

Yesterday Civic Party members insisted the decision belonged to then Secretary for Finance Donald Tsand and he the person who has to bear responsibility for the Disney situation for making the financial arrangements.  Although all members of the Executive Council participated and approved the accord, Donald Tsang was ultimately responsible.  But Civic Party Legco member Ronny Tong said last night that he does not intend to determine who is to be held responsible on the Disney situation, because the accountability system was not yet in place back then.

It seems that the biggest lesson in this incident is that in the future, when the pan-democrats want to settle old accounts with the government, they might have to check if Mrs. Chan was involved or else they could get the wrong target.

[ESWN blogger's comment: That last paragraph appears to assume that the interest of a political party supersedes the interest of the public that it is supposed to serve.  Do you agree?  Does a person have to give up his/her own sense of right vs. wrong upon joining a political party?  And who decides what is right vs. wrong for the political party?  The party bosses?]

• [009]  My First Autographed Book (12/03/2007)  In What Is On My Bookshelf, there are the autographed books to my parents from their various friends and colleagues.  By contrast, I only had three autographed books (signed by the late Susan Sontag at a book reading session that I attended) (see my New York City bookshelves in You Are What You Read).  Things have changed now as I have just received by mail the first autographed book addressed to me personally.
  

• [008]  The Results Are In!  (12/03/2007)  It is 3:30am and the official announcement for the Hong Kong Island Legco by-election says:
   
  1. Lau Yuk Shing, 344 votes
  2. Lee Wing Kin, 401 votes
  3. Siu See Kong, 613 votes
  4. Regina Ip Lau Suk Yee, 137,550 votes
  5. Tandon Lal Chaing, 3,518 votes
  6. Ling Wai Wan, 822 votes
  7. Anson Chan Fang, 175,874 votes
  8. Ho Loy, 1,593 votes
   
  Total: 320,715 votes
   
  So Anson Chan gets 54.84% while Regina Ip gets 42.89% for a margin of 11.95%.  Previously, the meta-margin across 38 polls was 12.0% (95% confidence interval of 10.67% to 13.34%) (see How to Report a Research?  終極篇之 Meta-analysis).  The HKU POP exit poll gave Anson Chan 52.5% and Regina Ip 42.5% roughly speaking.

  Bonus (How To Make Sure That Your Prediction Is Absolutely Correct) (1-555-CONFIDE)  The expert scholar Ma Ngok:

  RTHK (December 3, 2007, 2:02)  According to associate professor Ma Ngok from the Chinese University of Hong Kong Department of Political and Administrative Sciences, Anson Chan will ultimately get 10% more votes than Anson Chan.

  Apple Daily (November 31, 2006)  The analysis of election scholar Ma Ngok is very close to that of the pan-democrats.  He said that Mrs. Chan's election project as well as her lackadaisical performance at the election debates could not mobilize people or highlight her superiority to Mrs. Ip.  Furthermore the DAB just won big and yesterday's CUHK public opinion poll showed that the DAB is the political party that represents the interests of the people best.  Therefore, he believes that the DAB supporters will come out and vote Mrs. Ip.  Some neutral voters will be influenced by the smears on Mrs. Chan to vote for Mrs. Ip instead.  Therefore, he estimates that Mrs. Chan will lose the election. 

• [006]  Hong Kong Legco By-Election Exit Poll (12/02/2007)  The polls closed at 10:30pm tonight.  At 11:00pm, Hong Kong Cable Television announced that the Hong Kong University Public Opinion Programme exit poll provides confidence intervals of (45%,60%) for Anson Chan and (35%,50%) for Regina Ip.  These exit polls were based upon a sample of 3,600 persons intercepted outside 40 polling stations.  This is based upon a statistical sample and therefore incurs sampling error.  Consequently, the results are delivered as confidence intervals rather than precise point estimates.  
   
  But if you will, (45%, 60%) has a midpoint of 52.5% while (35%,50%) has a midpoint of 42.5%.  That implies that the estimated margin of victory is (52.5% - 42.5%) = 10%, which is close to the 12% implied in the meta-analysis by Chainsaw (at How to Report a Research?  終極篇之 Meta-analysis).
   
  Is there any potential shocker?  Well, if the assertion is that some people will not disclose their true preferences over telephone interviews (see Socially Desirable Responses in Surveys), then why would they tell it to someone who intercepts them outside the polling station?  I suggest that you wait through the night until the actual counts are announced.  If anything, the outcome will address the question whether public opinion polls on election preferences can be taken at face value in Hong Kong.

• [005]  Propaganda Tool or Newspaper? (12/02/2007)  For the Hong Kong Island Legislative Council By-election, several newspapers have continuously updated news reports.  Below are two screen captures from newspaper websites taken around 4:00pm.
   
  (Ming Pao)   
  
  15:54 Electoral Affairs Commission received 244 election-related complaints
  15:42 Voter turnout rate at 27.51% at 3:30pm
  14:42 Latest voter turnout rate at 23.75%
  13:50 Ho Loy about to switch location to rally voters
  13:38 Legco By-election voter turnout at 19.68%
  13.35 Anson Chan encounters chaos in Aberdeen
  13:19 Henry Tang: Ensure that the election be open and fair
  12:55 Electoral Affairs Commission received 99 complaints
  12:45 Latest voter turnout 15.86%
  12:02 Legco by-election voter turnout slightly lower
  11:40 Voter turnout after hours at 11:48%
   
  (Apple Daily)
  
  03:52pm Mrs. Chan arrives at Chee Fu
  03:52pm Kam Na-wai: the opposition iron votes are tough
  03:47pm Mrs. Chan surrounded by people
  03:45pm Martin Oei: If you don't want Article 23, please cast a vote for Mrs. Chan
  03:42pm Chong Chen-yau: If you neglect to vote today, you'll be sorry later
  03:28pm James To: Mainlanders yearn for the excellent Hong Kong system
  03:24pm Martin Lee: Mrs. Chan is losing
  02:08pm Ng Kai-liu: Mrs. Chan can only win if voter turnout percent reaches 55%
  01:25pm Program schedule, methods of submitting information and joining the discussion
  12:57pm Tanya Chan: Vote according to your conscience for the person who can speak for the core values of Hong Kong
  12:46pm Voter turnout: 15.86%, lower than same time period in 2004 and 1998
  12:38pm Yam Kwan Pui-ying: Mrs. Chan will lose if you don't vote
  12:06pm Audrey Eu: Use this by-election to prove the determination of Hong Kong people to get universal suffrage
  11:26am Hong Kong will always have you
  11:23am Ho Loy: Hope the voters will choose based upon the policy platforms of the candidates and thus demonstrate the quality of Hong Kong people
  11:18am Program schedule, methods of submitting information and joining the discussion
  10:25am Mandy Tam: Anson Chan is the core value of Hong Kong

• [003]  Popular Science in the Post-South China Tiger Era (12/01/2007)  I have asserted numerous times that the South China tiger photograph 'hoax' has implications far beyond a simple 'paper tiger' exercise (see The South China Tiger Photographs).  The story of freedom and democracy in China in the Internet era consists a series of small, imperceptible and seemingly insignificant steps which may turn out to be landmarks.
   
  In the case of the South China tiger 'hoax', the local government presented two photographs to show that the previously thought-to-be extinct South China tiger is apparently alive and well.  The Internet netizens were filled with skepticism.  The significant fact was the netizens did not react with a heap of insults and abuses.  Instead, the most powerful voices came from technicians.  First, a botanist questioned the ratio between the size of the local flora and the South China tiger, and deduced that this tiger must be the size of a pussy cat.  Next, a zoologist figured out the typical habitat of a South China tiger and deduced that the Zhenping conserved zone cannot possibly contain more than two South China tigers, such that the species cannot possibly sustain itself in that zone.  Then photography experts analyzed the photographs and figured out that the filmed tiger must have been a two-dimensional printed display.  The clincher was when the original wall poster was located through collaborative efforts all across China.
   
  The point was that the response did not consist of attacks against the local government for the sake of attacking them.  Instead, the criticisms came from people who made scientific arguments based upon their own expertise, be it botany, zoology, photography, or whatever.
   
  On August 27, 1958, the People's Daily published an editorial titled: "the earth will produce whatever people dare to do."  Based upon the average amount of sunlight that can be absorbed by plants, there should be more than 10,000 jin of rice per mu of land.
   
  
   
  The atomic scientist Qian Xueshen was asked to estimate the productivity of farm land in China.  His assessment appeared in the June 16th, 1958 issue of China Youth Daily.
   
  
   
  It can be said categorically if either the People's Daily piece or Qin Xueshen's essay were to appear today under the prevailing circumstances, it would have been demolished by the Internet netizens.  The take-down would be given in terms of pure scientific arguments (e.g. the law of conservation of ernergy required (as in how people can accomplish more by being places where they cannot possibly be at)).

• [002]  A Meta-analysis of Hong Kong Island Legco By-Election Poll Results (12/01/2007)  There are so many polls done on the Hong Kong Island Legco by-election this Sunday.  What is the bottom line from the sum total of all these polls?  Chainsaw at 1-555-CONFIDE has done a meta-analysis across 38 polls conducted by Apple Daily/HKU, HKU POP, Lingnan University PGP, Hong Kong Research Association and SCMP/TNS with a total of 27,713 respondents.  The bottom line is this -- Anson Chan leads Regina Ip by a margin of 12% (with the 95% confidence interval between 10.67% and 13.34%).
   
  The above is premised upon taking the poll results at face value -- that is, people are telling what they think and they will vote just that way.  Elsewhere, I have written about how people do not always tell what they really think and they may also act differently in practice (see Socially Desirable Responses in Surveys).
   
  The methodology of meta-analysis as applied to election polls seems to have worked well in the United States.  But the social environment there is different from Hong Kong.  In the United States, there is no stigma telling anyone that one supports either the Republican Party or the Democratic Party or that one does not intend to vote for the crooks from either Party.  In Hong Kong, some people appear to conceal their political preferences.  This may make Hong Kong more similar to Taiwan, where polls are often quite spectacularly wrong because of hidden political preferences.
   
  Over time, it may seem possible to come up with discount factors (e.g. add 25% to all HKU POP poll numbers for DAB candidates).  But the current Hong Kong Legco by-election is an unusual one-time-only event between two candidates from opposite camps fighting for one seat.  So it is possible that the outcome of this election may be surprising.
   
  Chainsaw at 1-555-CONFIDE wrote: "Actually, the thing that I want to see least is that if Mrs. Chan should lose to Mrs. Ip, the media or the democrats will put the blame on the pollsters."
   
  Please remember: In polls, respondents tell interviewers about their voting intentions.  In elections, voters actually cast votes.  Polls are indicative of elections, but are not identical.  After all, if polls always reflect actual election outcomes accurately, why bother holding elections?  In the end, only elections matter and it is up to the voters to show up and cast their votes.  If the actual results distress some people, it is not because of what the pollsters did wrong, but what the voters actually did.

• [001]  Jimmy Lai Swims To Taiwan? (12/01/2007)  (A Conspiracy of Hecklers) When heckled, Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian said: "If you don't like Taiwan and you think that China is so great, you should know that there is no lid over the Pacific Ocean.  If you like China, you should swim over there!"
   
  With respect to tomorrow's Hong Kong Island Legco by-election, Apple Daily boss Jimmy Lai said that if Regina Ip were to win, "I may migrate to Taiwan.  Hong Kong has lost all sense of right versus wrong.  How can one live here?"  (我可能會移民台灣 ，（香港）完全冇晒是非，點住呀？)